Edited 4/25/2011: Since posting this entry, I’ve been tracking recent news on Twitter. Here are my updates on the progress of the crisis (in reverse chronological order).
Is Fukushima really as bad as Chernobyl? RT @SciAmhttp://bit.ly/ht2Kny @dbiello
MT @engineer4change: How can a community on a budget prevent damage from #tsunamis? We asked an #engineering expert.http://fb.me/J5t9kuMi
@mongrelized It’s important to talk about the personal stories from the #tsunami. An #earthquake level is just a number.
Japanese Workers Braved Radiation for a Temp Job http://pulsene.ws/1ftqt #fukushima #nuclear @mongrelized
RT @dbiello: now let’s hope pumps work MT @NEI_media: JAIF: Electric lines connected to Fukushima reactors 1 & 2, other reactors to get power Sunday
RT @sciam: one hero named: Michiko Otsuki. @gbrumfiel: Original blog post from Fukushima worker on Strait Times.http://j.mp/hFAEPF
@mongrelized I’m extraordinarily impressed by the workers who stayed at the #nuclear plant in Japan. #momentofsilence
A recent environmental psychology article from the UK says “the risks of nuclear power are almost unique in their capacity to [instill] public concern.” The Sociological Images blog shows public support for nuclear power in the United States has dropped since an earthquake and tsunami damaged a nuclear power plant in Japan this week. Although there are preexisting concerns about nuclear power, I believe it’s likely that this change is connected to the fear inspired by recent news.
These fears may be based on misconceptions about risk. The goal of this post is not to reassure people about nuclear power, but to explain the differences between our fears and what is really happening.
Radioactivity exists around us all the time, but its levels vary. It’s the level that counts. We’re often exposed to small amounts of radiation through food and sunlight, for example. Radiation exposure from human activities can come from having a MRI scan, getting X-rays or taking an airplane flight.
According to the Nuclear Science and Engineering department blog at MIT, after the tsunami and earthquake in Japan damaged a power plant’s ability to cool its fuel, radiation levels immediately outside the plant reached the level of a whole-body CT scan for two short periods of time. (The data are from The New York Times.)
Here’s a summary of health comments from the press conferences at Union of Concerned Scientists this Tuesday and Wednesday:
- The people who are at risk right now are the workers inside the plant. Other people in Japan are not experiencing a significantly higher risk of cancer – yet.
- In the worst-case scenario, if the workers are not able to keep the fuel rods cool, tens of thousands of people in Japan could have an increased lifetime risk of cancer. So far, scientists don’t know what the numbers or percentages would be. In the best case, this won’t happen.
- The scientist who responded to the question did not expect anyone living nearby would die from the short-term effects of the accident. He wasn’t sure about the workers inside the plant, though.
- It isn’t necessary for people who live far away from the plant to buy potassium iodide as a protective measure (which some people in the United States are doing). Actually, buying it can deplete the supplies that people in Japan might need.
People tend to fear short-term catastrophes more than long-term ones. A recent LiveScience article reported 42 percent of survey respondents consider nuclear power unsafe. In comparison, 51 percent of respondents to another recent survey said they worried about global warming often. (Both of these surveys are from the United States.)
If you compare the many risks posed by global warming – flooding, migration, decreased food supply and other hazards – to the risks posed by nuclear plant accidents, it’s striking how close those two percentages are. In proportion, the specter of a nuclear meltdown seems to be more frightening than global warming.
A USA Today article reported that in 2009, close to 34,000 people died in traffic accidents in the United States. Comparing this number to the results of the current power plant accident – even the worst-case scenario – shows our perceptions about risks are sometimes out of proportion to the real hazards.
None of these comments are evidence that we should support nuclear power; that question goes far beyond this post. But we see nuclear power based on the short-term, frightening and visible nature of industrial accidents, not their relative level of danger.